By Wilhelm Röpke
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Increasingly we find, not only in Germany, but also in the United States and England, a nagging doubt as to whether capitalism can be maintained much longer in this greatest of all depressions, whether indeed it is right and expedient to maintain it. A growing number of deserters leave the capitalist for the socialist camp, which soon will be as motley as ever Wallenstein's was. There is mounting evidence of a distinct feeling of inferiority on the part of the capitalist world, of despondency and flirtation with socialist ideas of economic planning; openly or implicitly, the outward progress of the Russian five-year plan is taken as the yardstick for measuring the imagined and the real shortcomings of capitalism.
This means a corresponding increase in the money supply of the creditor country, with a consequent tendency for prices to rise, imports to expand, and exports to fall, so that the market is automatically prepared for additional exports from the debtor country. Any possible imports of gold enhance this tendency just as does the state of the foreign exchange market, as described above, and the correspondingly liberal credit policy of the creditor country. If the transfer mechanism so outlined works without friction, we would expect, therefore, that the sum raised domestically in the debtor country is reflected in an equally large decrease of the same country's total money supply, which decrease, in its turn, equals the shift in the proportion of Germany's visible and invisible exports and imports, equals the opposite shift in the exports and imports of the creditor TRANSFER PROBLEM IN INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MOVEMENTS 15 countries, equals the sum which the creditor country receives, and finally equals the increase in the creditor country's total money supply.
3 See W. Ropke, "Neuere Literatur zum Reparationsproblem," Zeitschrift fur Nationalokonomie (1930), p. 1. 14 WEIMAR REPUBLIC, BROWN TOTALITARIANISM, WORLD WAR II 5. As a further consequence, demand for foreign exchange diminishes while its supply rises. 6. The foreign exchange market is thereby adequately prepared for a conversion of the capital sums due to be transferred abroad into the currency of the creditor country. The pressure this conversion exercises on the national currency automatically leads to a further considerable improvement in the already transfer-favorable situation of the foreign exchange market since other demand for foreign exchange will diminish and supply will rise.
Against the tide by Wilhelm Röpke